OFFICIAL EXPERT OPINION
European Funding Experts – Brussels

Regarding the project “Second Asparuhov Bridge – Two-Level Structure – Varna”

I. SUBJECT OF THE OPINION

This expert opinion examines the project “Second Asparuhov Bridge – Two-Level Structure – Varna”, developed and proposed by the Black Sea Economic Zone Cluster (BSEZ Cluster), as a strategic transport, urban, port-related and regional infrastructure concept. The project envisages the construction of a new bridge connection over Varna Lake along a corridor included in the Master Plan of Varna, with two main functions: an urban alternative to the existing Asparuhov Bridge and the possibility to divert transit and motorway traffic towards Hemus Motorway and Black Sea Motorway. In the project materials of BSEZ Cluster, the concept is developed as a two-level bridge – one level for urban traffic and one level for transit/motorway traffic, with the possibility of phased implementation.

II. BASIS AND RELEVANCE

Since 2013, the second bridge corridor has been included in the Master Plan of Varna as a strategic infrastructure facility. More than ten years later, there is still no real institutional progress corresponding to the scale of the problem. At present:

• there is no decision of the Varna Municipal Council for project implementation;
• no pre-feasibility study has been commissioned;
• there is no official traffic model;
• no cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been prepared;
• there is no technical design;
• no application for European funding has been submitted;
• the project has not been included in a national infrastructure pipeline;
• there is no institutional launch of the project.

The factual conclusion is that the project is planned within the spatial development framework of the city, but has not been institutionally initiated.

III. ACTIVITIES OF BSEZ CLUSTER – ACTIONS ACTUALLY UNDERTAKEN

BSEZ Cluster is the organisation that has systematically developed the issue of a second bridge as a strategic project for Varna. The actions undertaken include:

• development of a conceptual design for a two-level bridge;
• development of alternative options: bridge, lock, terminal and combined solutions;
• preparation of technical parameters and visualisations;
• alignment of the proposed corridor with the Master Plan of Varna;
• development of a concept separating urban and transit traffic on different levels;
• organisation of a working meeting at the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works in 2019 with the participation of European funding experts from Brussels;
• civil-expert survey of the existing Asparuhov Bridge;
• creation of a public visual analysis and information platform: http://www.asparuhovmost.com/;
• continuous public advocacy and expert positioning of the project;
• linking the project with European transport, port and logistics corridors;
• positioning the project within the broader development framework of Varna and North-Eastern Bulgaria.

IV. SURVEY OF ASPARUHOV BRIDGE AND RELEVANCE TO THE PROJECT

BSEZ Cluster carried out a civil-expert survey of Asparuhov Bridge in 2018–2019. The survey raised concerns regarding several serious deficiencies in the maintenance and monitoring of the structure, including:

• absence of an updated seismic assessment;
• absence of systematic geodetic monitoring of structural deformations since 1999;
• non-operational inspection/service platforms;
• unmaintained roller bearings;
• corrosion and defects affecting structural elements;
• corrosion beneath pedestrian walkways;
• lack of inspection of key structural components for decades;
• friction bolts not inspected since 2000.

The expert conclusion is that Asparuhov Bridge is critical infrastructure with increased systemic risk and without an equivalent reserve alternative.

V. WHAT HAS BEEN DONE BY THE INSTITUTIONS

Municipality of Varna:

• no pre-feasibility study has been commissioned;
• no public procurement procedure for technical design has been launched;
• no updated traffic analysis has been prepared;
• no CBA has been prepared;
• no project package for EU funding has been prepared;
• no publicly presented implementation roadmap exists.

Varna Municipal Council:

• no decision has been adopted to initiate implementation of the second bridge;
• no procedure has been assigned to the Mayor for commissioning a pre-feasibility study;
• no phased development programme has been adopted;
• no decision has been made to classify the project as a priority municipal infrastructure project;
• no institutionally traceable initiative for European funding has been undertaken.

Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works:

• a working meeting was held in 2019 at the initiative of BSEZ Cluster;
• there is no publicly traceable inclusion of the project in a national infrastructure pipeline;
• there is no state strategy for implementation;
• there is no publicly announced follow-up procedure for technical studies, CBA, EIA or funding application.

VI. KEY PROBLEM – INSTITUTIONAL DELAY

Since 2013, the project has existed as a corridor in the Master Plan of Varna. There is a concept developed by BSEZ Cluster, public and expert justification, a meeting held at the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works, a civil-expert survey of Asparuhov Bridge and a publicly stated problem concerning the absence of a reserve transport connection.

However, there is no decision of the Varna Municipal Council, no commissioning of a pre-feasibility study, no real project launch, no technical design, no European funding application and no state-level structuring.

The conclusion is that Varna Municipal Council and the Municipality of Varna have delayed the development of the project for more than ten years through the absence of decision-making, commissioning and consistent institutional action.

VII. BSEZ CLUSTER PROPOSAL – PHASED MODEL

BSEZ Cluster does not propose a one-off mega-project implementation, but a realistic phased approach, allowing the project to progress in a practical, financially manageable and EU-compliant manner.

Stage 1 – Critical urban stage:

• new urban bridge connection;
• provision of an alternative to Asparuhov Bridge;
• possibility for major rehabilitation of the existing bridge without blocking the city;
• traffic relief for the southern districts;
• improved safety and redundancy of the transport system.

Stage 2 – Transit and motorway stage:

• diversion of transit traffic;
• connection to Hemus Motorway;
• connection to Black Sea Motorway;
• development of feeder infrastructure;
• intelligent traffic management.

Stage 3 – Logistics and regional stage:

• integration with port logistics;
• connection to industrial zones;
• development of intermodal and terminal components;
• linkage with deep-water development of Port Varna;
• integration into a regional logistics corridor towards Central Europe.

VIII. TECHNICAL AND TRANSPORT FRAMEWORK

In the available materials, BSEZ Cluster examines several engineering solutions: raising the existing Asparuhov Bridge, constructing a new two-level bridge, developing a second cable-stayed bridge, building a new lock-dock chamber, and applying a combined “bridge & lock & terminal” model. The new two-level bridge concept is described with an approximate length of 1,900 m, width of 29 m, two dual carriageways, capacity for both motorway and urban traffic, a main bridge section of approximately 798 m, and maximum clearance above water of 57.91 m.

IX. FINANCIAL MODEL – EXPERT FRAMEWORK / EXCEL LOGIC

Investment – realistic ranges:

• Stage 1: €120–180 million;
• Stage 2: €200–330 million;
• full model: €600–900 million.

Financing:

• EU programmes – CEF, Transport Connectivity Programme, Cohesion Fund;
• state co-financing;
• municipal participation for feeder infrastructure;
• European Investment Bank / InvestEU;
• PPP only for complementary components.

Return logic:

• Economic IRR: approximately 5–9%;
• social return: high;
• Financial IRR: low or negative without direct tolling;
• private ROI: mainly applicable to logistics, terminal and commercial zones.

X. EU FUNDING STRUCTURE AND EUROPEAN PRACTICE

The realistic model for EU funding is phased:

• Stage 1: application for pre-feasibility study, option analysis, CBA, EIA, technical design and financial model;
• Stage 2: inclusion in a national project pipeline and coordination with MRDPW, Ministry of Transport, Road Infrastructure Agency, Municipality of Varna, Regional Administration and port institutions;
• Stage 3: application for construction financing under CEF Transport, Transport Connectivity Programme, ERDF/Cohesion Fund or a blended financing model with EIB;
• Stage 4: state/municipal co-financing and potential PPP for complementary components.

XI. KEY CONCLUSION AND IMMEDIATE RECOMMENDATIONS

The project proposed by BSEZ Cluster is technically justified, strategically necessary, included in the Master Plan, socially significant, aligned with European practice, based on a phased implementation model and suitable for European funding logic.

The core problem is not the project itself, but the lack of institutional decision-making and action.

The immediate necessary steps are:

• decision of Varna Municipal Council to initiate project preparation;
• commissioning of a pre-feasibility study by the Mayor;
• preparation of a CBA and traffic model;
• official option analysis;
• structural, geodetic and seismic survey of Asparuhov Bridge;
• inclusion in a national infrastructure pipeline;
• preparation for EU funding;
• institutional working group involving MRDPW, Ministry of Transport, Road Infrastructure Agency, Municipality of Varna, Regional Administration and BSEZ Cluster.

XII. CONCLUSION

The project “Second Asparuhov Bridge – Two-Level Structure – Varna” is a strategically significant concept with high public, transport and regional value. BSEZ Cluster has fulfilled its role: it has formulated the problem, proposed a solution, developed a technical concept, prepared alternative options, conducted a civil-expert survey of Asparuhov Bridge and initiated institutional dialogue, including a working meeting at the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works with the participation of experts from Brussels.

In precise terms: BSEZ Cluster has already completed the civil-expert work related to problem definition, concept development and strategic logic. The next necessary step is for the Municipality of Varna, Varna Municipal Council and the state to initiate a real implementation procedure through an official pre-feasibility study, option analysis, CBA, EIA, financial model and application for European funding.